Archive for the ‘Residential Sales’ Category

Existing home sales explode as spring homebuying season officially arrives

Spring House

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.
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Existing-homes sales surged to their highest annual rate in 18 months, showing a promising beginning to the spring homebuying season, the latest report from the National Association of Relators said.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 6.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million in March from 4.89 million in February—the highest annual rate since September 2013 (also 5.19 million).

This is positive news for the industry after existing-home sales collapsed 4.9% in January to the lowest rate in nine months, falling well below analyst expectations. And while they did pick up in February and edged up by 1.2%, there was still some stagnation in the market.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market appears to be off to an encouraging start this spring.

“After a quiet start to the year, sales activity picked up greatly throughout the country in March,” he continued. “The combination of low interest rates and the ongoing stability in the job market is improving buyer confidence and finally releasing some of the sizable pent-up demand that accumulated in recent years.”

Furthermore, sales have increased year-over-year for six consecutive months and are now 10.4% above a year ago, the highest annual increase since August 2013 (10.7%). March’s sales increase was the largest monthly increase since December 2010 (6.2%).

Total housing inventory at the end of March grew 5.3% to 2 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 2% above a year ago (1.96 million). Unsold inventory is at a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.7 months in February.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $212,100, which is 7.8% above March 2014, marking the 37th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains and the largest since February 2014 (8.8%).

“The modest rise in housing supply at the end of the month despite the strong growth in sales is a welcoming sign,” adds Yun. “For sales to build upon their current pace, homeowners will increasingly need to be confident in their ability to sell their home while having enough time and choices to upgrade or downsize. More listings and new home construction are still needed to tame price growth and provide more opportunity for first-time buyers to enter the market.”

The percent share of first-time buyers was 30% in March. This marks the third time since last March that the first-time buyer share was at or above 30%. First-time buyers represented 29% of all buyers last month; they were 30% in March 2014.

“The jump in March’s existing sales beat expectations and is welcome news for those who have been waiting for the spring housing market to kick into gear,” said Quicken Loans Vice President Bill Banfield. “Purchase applications have been steadily increasing over the last month and rates remain low (for now) – both of which could be signals of continued momentum in the coming months.”

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 6.9% to an annual rate of 620,000, and are 1.6% above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $240,500, which is 1.6% below a year ago.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales escalated 10.1% to an annual rate of 1.20 million in March, and are now 12.1% above March 2014. The median price in the Midwest was $163,600, up 9.7% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South climbed 3.8% to an annual rate of 2.19 million in March, and are now 11.7% above March 2014. The median price in the South was $187,900, up 9.3% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 6.3% to an annual rate of 1.18 million in March, and are now 11.3% above a year ago. The median price in the West was $305,000, which is 8.3% above March 2014.

Surges to highest level in 18 months

Fannie Mae Offers First-Time Home Buyers Big Help With Closing Costs

This 5 bedroom, 3-bath house qualifies for 3% closing cost from Fannie Mae

 

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

If you’re a first-time home buyer just entering the market, you’re in for a springtime treat: Fannie Mae will now pay your closing costs, up to 3% of the price of the home—provided you take the mortgage giant’s home-buyer counseling course first.

The new HomePath Ready Buyer program, announced on Wednesday, allows first-time buyers (defined as those who have not owned a home in the past three years) to take an online course, get certified, and become eligible for what could amount to significant savings. For instance, on a $150,000 home, Fannie Mae could contribute up to $4,500 toward your closing costs—which typically range from 2.5% to 3% of a home’s price—and even reimburse you for the $75 online course.

“This could actually get someone in the game,” said Frank Montro, a Chicago-area real estate broker who specializes in selling rehabbed homes. “This goes straight to the buyer’s needs.”

Montro says first-time home buyers are usually either “cash-poor or credit-poor. They pay their bills on time and they qualify for the mortgage, but they just don’t have the savings.”

By offering closing cost assistance on their properties, Fannie Mae is opening the gates to a pool of people who have largely been left behind in the housing market recovery. Traditionally, first-time buyers have made up about 40% of the market. Last year, they accounted for 33%, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

While this announcement marks the mortgage giant’s latest step in loosening credit availability—it also announced a new 3% down loan program in December—it does so with some strings attached. The closing cost credit applies only to properties in Fannie Mae’s own inventory.

Fannie Mae owns thousands of houses across the country, all seized in foreclosure proceedings, and now the government-backed private corporation is actively trying to unload that inventory. Searching our own site’s listings, we found 7,075 single-family homes listed as Fannie Mae HomePath properties.

April 17th, 2015 – Chrystal Caruthers – http://www.realtor.com/news/fannie-mae-first-time-home-buyer-closing-costs-help/

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.  Check back tomorrow for more.

Fannie Mae Reports All-Time High for Consumer Optimism Toward Economy

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

Fannie Mae Housing Survey Consumer OptimismConsumers were more optimistic toward the economy than they’ve been at any point in the last five years, according to Fannie Mae‘s February 2015 National Housing Survey released Monday.

The percentage of respondents who said they believe the economy is on the right track increased by 3 percentage points since January’s survey up to 47 percent, an all-time high since the survey began nearly five years ago. The rise in consumer optimism is largely attributed to recent employment gains, which totaled nearly 300,000 for February and averaged 266,000 per month in the last 12 months, according to the most recent report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In that same BLS report, the nation’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.5 percent, its lowest level in nearly seven years.

Also hitting an all-time high for Fannie Mae’s housing survey was the percentage of respondents who said they believe it is easier to get a mortgage today (54 percent). The share of respondents who said they believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage dropped by 4 percentage points to an all-time survey low of 43 percent.

“Continuing improvements in consumer attitudes in this month’s National Housing Survey lend support to our expectation that 2015 will be a year of the economy dragging housing upward,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “The share of consumers who think the economy is on the right track rose to a record high since the inception of the survey nearly five years ago and for the first time exceeded the share who believe it’s on the wrong track. Consumer confidence seems to be getting a boost from employment growth. This is reflected in their views on the ease of getting a mortgage today, which also reached a survey high in February.”

One area where Duncan said needs improvement in order for the prediction of the economy “dragging housing upward” to come true is in the area of wage gains. According to the BLS employment report released last week, the average hourly wage increased from January to February by only 3 cents up to $24.78 – after rising by 12 cents from December to January.

While the percentage of respondents in Fannie Mae’s survey who said they believe home prices will go up in the next 12 months declined to 46 percent, the share who said home prices will go down also declined, to 6 percent. The percentage who said mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months increased to 48 percent.

Those numbers combined with the attitudes of survey respondents regarding their finances and income does not bode well for housing. About 46 percent of respondents said they expect their personal finances to get better in the next 12 months, representing a decline from January. The percentage of respondents who said their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago declined by 5 percentage points, down to 24 percent.

According to Fannie Mae, the percentage of survey respondents who said they expected to buy a home the next time they move declined by 1 percentage point but still was reported at 65 percent for February.

“We continue to see strength in attitudes about the current home buying and selling environment and consistently high shares of consumers saying they expect to buy a home on their next move,” Duncan said. “At the same time, we still need to see further growth in consumer optimism toward personal finances and income for more robust improvement in housing market attitudes.”

Author: Brian Honea March 9, 2015 – http://dsnews.com/news/03-09-2015/fannie-mae-reports-all-time-high-for-consumer-optimism-toward-economy?utm_source=DSNews.com&utm_campaign=7e373a66ee-Your_Daily_Dose1_28_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1924082bfe-7e373a66ee-175200045

Come back tomorrow to http://www.AshfordCP.com/blog  where Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

President Increases HUD Budget By $4 Billion for FY 2016

HUD Budget FY 2016As analysts and critics pore over the details of the White House’s proposed budget for fiscal year 2016, the executive department in charge of housing says it hopes to use its share to restore cuts made after 2013’s budget sequester.

Included in President Barack Obama’s newest budget is $49.3 billion set aside for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), a $4 billion increase over last year.

In a statement, HUD Secretary Julián Castro said the proposed funding provides a “blueprint for greater opportunity for all Americans.”

“By increasing our Department’s funding level by nearly $4 billion over current levels, the President’s Budget helps us continue our progress toward achieving our mission to promote homeownership, support community development—including making neighborhoods more resilient from natural disasters—and expand to affordable housing for all,” Castro said.

In a call with reporters, HUD Deputy Secretary Nani Coloretti explained that much of the budget will be used to undo some of the cuts made as the department experienced budget restraints as a result of sequestration. Included in that category is the planned restoration of 67,000 Housing Choice Vouchers used to help fund rental housing assistance for low-income families.

Also on HUD’s agenda for fiscal year 2016 is a $2.5 billion investment for Homeless Assistance Grants, which the department hopes to use for housing counseling, transitional programs, and other initiatives to meet the administration’s goals of ending homelessness.

Based on current projections, HUD says it is on track to end veteran homelessness by the end of 2015 and chronic homeless by the end of 2017.

The budget also includes $250 million to assist neighborhoods with distressed HUD-assisted housing, $748 million to promote housing and community development for Native American tribes, and $50 million to convert public housing units to project-based rental assistance contracts.

A more complete rundown of HUD’s planned budget can be found at the department’s website.

While the administration may have big plans for the next year, analysts anticipate a fight with Republicans over the full scope of the budget, which comes to nearly $4 trillion.

“Of course we hope the entire budget will get through Congress,” Coloretti said in a conference call with reporters. “… I know that some of our proposals remain both popular and supported by Congress because we accept every community,” she said.

Author: Tory Barringer February 3, 2015 – http://dsnews.com/news/02-03-2015/president-increases-hud-budget-4-billion-fy-2016?utm_source=DSNews.com&utm_campaign=9b9614a3b9-Your_Daily_Dose1_28_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1924082bfe-9b9614a3b9-175200045

Come back tomorrow to http://www.AshfordCP.com/blog  where Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

Cash is Still King in Home Buying

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners Matthew Riedemann brings you news you can use.

In 17 of the largest U.S. cities, 32 percent of homes purchased so far in 2014 were paid for with all cash. All-cash purchases have been at this level – or even higher – since 2011. The rise in all-cash purchases began in 2007 as the housing bubble popped, and cash purchases accounted for nearly a third of all purchases by 2011. Tighter mortgage lending standards, investor purchases and fewer homes on the market have all contributed to keeping that rate high.

Percentage of all-cash buyers from 2000 to 2014

Percentage of all-cash buyers from 2000 to 2014

The largest percentages of homes purchased without a mortgage are at the low and high ends of the market. As home prices get into the upper echelon, all-cash purchases become more likely. Miami, Las Vegas, Chicago and Phoenix have the highest percentage of all-cash purchases, while Washington, D.C., Denver, Baltimore and Portland have the lowest percentage.

Percentage of all-cash home purchases across U.S. metros, by price range

Percentage of all-cash home purchases across U.S. metros, by price range

All-Cash Purchases Less Common In $200,000 to $600,000 Homes

The good news for homebuyers in large metro areas who don’t have a stash of cash is that these all-cash purchases are less common in the middle price range, from $200,000 to $600,000. With over 50 percent of purchases falling in that range, it means that a large group of homebuyers will be a bit less likely to face all-cash offers. In this middle range of home prices, Washington, D.C. (15%), Denver (16%), Baltimore (14%), Portland, Ore. (18%) and Boston (20%) had the lowest percentage of all-cash buyers.

Financed Purchases Not Back to 2000 Levels

In 2000, across the 17 metros, there were 800,000 home purchases financed with a mortgage. By 2011, that number had plummeted to 440,000 and had only recovered to 520,000 in 2013. And while interest rates today are still appealing, tighter lending standards mean less-qualified buyers who don’t have hundreds of thousands of dollars saved up have not entered or re-entered the housing market. Mel Watt, the overseer of Fannie and Freddie (who back the majority of new mortgage loans), recently said we should be making more credit available to homeowners. But there is a sliver of good news: Financed home purchases have been on the rise since 2011, while all-cash purchases remained flat from 2012 to 2013. If this trend continues, financed buyers will face fewer situations where they are competing against all-cash buyers.

All-cash and financed home purchase volume from 2000 to 2013

All-cash and financed home purchase volume from 2000 to 2013

by |  – www.redfin.com

Home Builders Are Hiring 300 New Construction Workers a Day

The number of open, unfilled construction sector jobs continued to decline as the unseasonably cold winter ended.

According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the number of open construction sector jobs declined on a seasonally adjusted basis from 127,000 in February to 104,000 in March. While still high relative to the post-recession period, the March level was the lowest since July of last year but the 11th consecutive month above 100,000. Winter conditions slowed the growth of home construction in recent months, and this factor could have slowed the number of jobs offered by builders and remodelers.

On a three-month moving average basis, the open position rate for the construction sector fell to 1.93% for the month of March, continuing a decline begun in December. While the open rate has declined somewhat in recent months, the rate of open jobs in construction remains above any rate witnessed after the recession and prior to 2013.

Jolts_March data_construction

Monthly gross hiring in construction declined somewhat, falling on a seasonally adjusted basis from 289,000 to 260,000 from February to March. Over the same period, the hiring rate, as measured on a 3-month moving average basis, was effectively unchanged at 4.67% for March.

Two trends in the construction sector are worth noting. First, the layoff rate for the sector (graphed above as a 12-month moving average) has continued to fall. Second, the sector hiring rate has fallen noticeably since the fall of 2013. The trend lines over the last two years – a falling hiring rate, an increasing opening rate trend, and a declining layoff rate – are consistent with some construction firms having trouble contracting with workers for specific projects. However, future employment reports will indicate whether recent hiring weakness is mostly due to weather effects or reflects new baselines for construction activity.

Monthly employment data for April 2014 (the employment count data from the BLS establishment survey are published one month ahead of the JOLTS data) indicate that total employment in home building stands at 2.257 million, broken down as 659,000 builders and 1.598 million residential specialty trade contractors.

Res construction employment_Apr

Over the last year the home building sector has added 108,000 jobs. Since the point of peak decline of home building employment, when total job losses for the industry stood at 1.466 million, 273,600 positions have been added to the residential construction sector. As of March, over the last six months the home building and remodeling industry has added on average more than 11,000 jobs per month.

For the economy as a whole, the March JOLTS data indicate that the hiring rate was constant at 3.4% of total employment. The hiring rate has been in the 3.1% to 3.4% range since January 2011. The current overall job openings rate (2.8%) has been in the 2.7% to 2.9% range since the start of 2013.

 

Source:  Builder Online – May 14, 2014

Twice as Many Consumers Prefer New Homes to Existing

Larger closets, open floor plans, and roomy kitchen islands seen as big draws of new homes.

 

While twice as many American consumers prefer a newly built home compared to an existing dwelling, many are reluctant to pay extra for new, according to the results of a new survey from Trulia.

Forty-one percent of respondents said they prefer to buy a new home over a previously lived in one, compared to 21 percent who said they would prefer an existing home at the same price. But of those buyers interested in new homes, only 46% were willing to pay the 20% premium that new homes typically require. In fact, only 17% of respondents said they would pay at least 20% more for a new home.

Trulia compared median prices for a new home adjusted for property features and location and found that new homes are typically priced 20% higher than older homes with similar attributes such as square footage and number of bedrooms in the same zip code.

The survey explored consumer preferences for each type of home. The top reasons respondents prefer a new home are for modern features such as bigger closets, a kitchen island, open floor plan, walls pre-wired for flat screen TVs, radiant floor heating, to be able to customize the home before construction is completed, and to spend less on maintenance and repairs.

Fans of existing homes have their reasons, too. The most compelling reason to buy an existing home is to pay less. However, among respondents who strongly prefer an existing home, the top reasons to buy an existing home are for one-of-a-kind finishes such as original wood floors, woodwork, ornate details, or stained/leaded glass windows, and to live in a more established neighborhood.

Interestingly, respondents are much more likely to mention the neighborhood as a reason to prefer an existing home than as a reason to prefer a new home. This suggests that for many Americans, the ideal home might be a new home in an established neighborhood, the survey concludes.

By  – Builder Online – May 5, 2014

The New Math of Renting vs. Buying

Here’s how to figure out which strategy makes the most financial sense.

Buying a home has long been part of the American dream. But rising prices have made renting less expensive in many places.

How They Rank 

See the full rankings for 54 metro areas, and how Deutsche Bank did the math, on Total Return.

People often aspire to own a home for reasons that have little to do with money, and rental options are limited in some communities. Yet owning property can limit your flexibility to move when you want and ties up a lot of your money.

The median sales price of existing single-family homes rose 11.4% in 2013 from the previous year—the highest yearly increase since 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors. Prices in many places, including Los Angeles, Baltimore and Portland, Ore., rose even more last year.

The monthly cost of renting was lower than buying in 20 large metropolitan areas at the end of last year, the most recent period for which data are available, according to figures provided exclusively to The Wall Street Journal by Deutsche Bank.   

The bank calculates the costs in 54 markets based on average local rents and median home-sale prices, which it uses to estimate monthly mortgage payments for a hypothetical buyer in the 25% federal income-tax bracket.

Renting had been less expensive than buying on average across all the areas Deutsche Bank tracks since at least the early 1990s. But that changed during the financial crisis, as home prices plummeted and interest rates on mortgages dropped. The current rally in home prices appears to be pushing the housing market back toward the historical norm.

Where Renters Made Gains

Here are the metro areas where renting made the biggest gains against buying in the fourth quarter of last year compared with a year earlier.

        

A renter in Orlando paid $1.24 a month for every $1 a buyer spent last year, down from $1.44 in 2012.                

 

The five markets where renting recently became cheaper than buying include some popular cities and suburbs where home prices are climbing fastest: Sacramento, Calif.; Phoenix; San Bernardino and Riverside, Calif.; Austin, Texas; and Northern Virginia.

Buying is still cheaper in 34 metropolitan areas Deutsche Bank examined, including Cleveland, Chicago and Atlanta, though prices rose last year in those areas, as well.

Renting has become more appealing financially than it was at the end of 2012 in places such as St. Louis; Orlando, Fla.; and Minneapolis, though buyers still pay much less than renters in those areas.

The buying advantage was slight in some places. Miami, San Antonio and Las Vegas are among the hot markets where renters appeared to be on the verge of being better off than buyers at year-end, according to the bank’s figures.

Buyers, of course, can build up equity as they pay down a mortgage, which can compensate for higher monthly costs.

Here is what you need to know to help figure out the most cost-effective way to keep a roof over your head. The first step is to understand the arguments in favor of buying and renting.

The Case for Buying

Many Americans see buying a home as an essential step in a successful life, and owning one can bring significant financial benefits.

The most obvious upside is that a home can significantly increase in value. The median sales price of existing single-family homes rose 81% from 1993 through 2013, according to the NAR.

The potential payoff can loom large in a buyer’s mind when home prices are going up rapidly, as they have recently. “We’ve already seen six to seven years of normal appreciation in the last 12 months” in many markets, says Jack McCabe, an independent housing analyst in Deerfield Beach, Fla.

Many homeowners also can deduct mortgage interest from their income-tax bills along the way.

In addition, homeowners can tap into the equity in their homes for big-ticket expenses, such as college tuition, at interest rates that can be lower than other financing options—though that can backfire by saddling homeowners with debt they can’t easily repay.

Homeowners also don’t have to worry about a spike in rents. Jacquelyn Bilton, who is 34 years old, bought a three-bedroom home with a pool in Margate, Fla., in February for $200,000, after her landlord raised her rent 28% last year. She says her monthly housing costs are now about $300 lower.

“I couldn’t afford to be throwing money down the drain in rent when I could purchase a home,” she says.

As they age, homeowners can enjoy another benefit. If they pay off their mortgages around the time they retire, their housing costs can drop significantly just when they may want extra cash for travel, medical expenses and the like, says Chris Mayer, research director at the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia University.

To be sure, the dream also can turn into a financial nightmare. The collapse of the housing market starting in 2008, which triggered millions of foreclosures, is a vivid recent example of what can go wrong.

Still, owning a home can be well worth it for personal and psychological reasons that go beyond financial calculations.

The Case for Renting

Given the wide array of potential benefits, homeowners are sometimes surprised to learn that buying isn’t always the smartest financial option.

To begin with, the monthly cost of renting can be lower, even for a home of similar size and quality in the same community.

 

Homeowners are sometimes surprised to learn that buying isn’t always the smartest financial option.             

Renters, for example, don’t pay property taxes, homeowner’s insurance and, in most cases, maintenance costs. These expenses can cost homeowners about 3% of the price of their home annually, experts say.

While those costs can be folded into monthly rent, apartment renters often pay a smaller share as landlords spread the costs among many tenants, says Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, director of the Center for Real Estate Finance Research at New York University. If a window breaks or the toilet plugs up, your landlord—not you—pays for the repairs.

Renters don’t end up with a valuable asset, as buyers do when they pay off a mortgage. But renters might be able to make more money by investing the monthly savings, as well as the cash they would otherwise use for a down payment, he says.

The value of the average single-family home increased by 3.6% a year in the three decades through 2013, compounded annually, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac. By contrast, the compound annual return on the S&P 500 over that period was 11.1%, according to Chicago-based investment-research firm Morningstar.

After moving to New York two years ago, Hunter Kearney, 27, looked into buying a condominium worth at least $2 million. But Mr. Kearney, an executive at a firm that sells graphite, concluded that renting a similar apartment was significantly less expensive.

“Your monthly costs end up being lower,” says Mr. Kearney, who says he saves about $2,000 a month over the cost of buying. He is investing some of the savings in the stock market.

Renters often have greater flexibility to move to a different part of the country, which can be important in a weak job market. They may feel freer to look for work in another city, and they don’t have to wait to sell their home if the right opportunity opens up.

Housing prices don’t need to decline as severely as they did during the financial crisis to cost homeowners significant sums, if they need to sell during a downturn. Modest declines in home prices are common.

Even people who want to own a home at some point can benefit from renting for a while to save up for a larger down payment. If the available inventory is thin, they can rent while they wait for a wider variety of homes to be listed for sale.

Handling a Hot Market

To calculate whether buying or renting makes more sense financially, you need to have a sense of your monthly costs in each case, including rent, mortgage payments, taxes, insurance and other related expenses that may apply to each option—as well as whether you would be more likely to spend or invest any savings from renting.

The verdict could differ considerably within a city, suburb or town, based on the location and the style and size of the homes you are exploring.

The Deutsche Bank data reflect an attempt to do that math across metropolitan areas, and essentially function as a general guide to each market.

Would-be buyers should proceed carefully. First, they should try to get a sense of how hot the local real-estate market is and whether buyers generally still have the upper hand, which is often the case far from the coasts and outside large cities.

If you are in a more-competitive market, be alert to the risk that you could end up in a bidding war that could drive up the purchase price. Being patient could pay off if prices cool down. In fact, slight corrections already have occurred in some markets.

In San Francisco’s East Bay area, for example, asking prices of some new homes declined 1% to 5% during the second half of last year, after builders raised prices by 5% to 18% in the prior quarter, according to Metrostudy, a housing research and consulting firm based in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.

Gene and Erin Lash plan to sell their home in Danville, Calif., and are prepared to spend $1 million to $2 million on a larger house. But the couple has faced as many as 30 competing offers on each of the five homes they bid on and lost out every time, says Mr. Lash, a 48-year-old forensic accountant.

Now, the Lashes are also looking into renting a single-family home or an apartment as a short-term alternative to buying. “Everything is on the table,” Mr. Lash says.

Even in a hot market, the math can be more advantageous for buyers who plan to stay put for a while, typically at least five to seven years. That should be enough time for market corrections to pass, says Landon Nash, a real-estate agent in San Francisco with national brokerage Redfin.

Mr. Nash says he is telling would-be buyers in his area who plan to sell in fewer than five years that they run significant risk of selling at a loss. “We’re at the top of the market,” he says. “They might be better off as renters.”

By:       AnnaMaria Andriotis – Builder Online –    May 2, 2014 6:17 p.m. ET

 

New Home Sales Will March to New Highs Soon

Let me go out on a limb and report now that new home sales are indeed marching forward and should be looking more positive on both a month-over-month, and year-over-year basis.

Metrostudy collects data on traffic and sales from builders around the country. The data isn’t as reliable as the full census we do in the field, inspecting subdivisions lot-by-lot, or by the lagging data on home closings, but in aggregate the traffic and sales metrics give us visibility into key leading trends.

The most reliable way to compare traffic and sales month-to-month and year-over-year is to look at the average traffic and average sales number per community, as that helps to control for changes caused by more or fewer communities. Think of it as “same store sales.” So if the average traffic and sales numbers go up, builders are seeing better results across their communities.

We are seeing 2014 perform following a classic new home sales pattern. In such a pattern, sales should grow each month into the spring and summer, and decline in the second half of the year (reflecting the extreme seasonality of real estate and construction).  Every month this year has reflected improving momentum—just as a classic seasonal pattern would predict.  But when compared to last year (which looked more like the industry was shot out of a cannon in January), sales haven’t been as strong.  The most negative bears said it was more than the weather.  I say it was weather and a very abnormal start to last year.

It’s time for the bears to wake up and realize spring has sprung, because we hit a new milestone at the end of March, even though the month was still harsh for winter weather.  In looking at our weekly traffic numbers, the most significant story was seen in the final week of March.  The last week of March recorded the best traffic and sales over at least the past four years for the same period.  That was also the first week in 2014 that both the traffic and contract average surpassed the same data points in 2013.

 

By  – Builder Online 4/22/2014

When Will the Kids Leave?

Why are household formations so low?  Because 1.2 million more adults live with their parents than just 8 years ago!

Nearly 4% of US households had an oldest child aged 25–34 living at home in 2012. Compare this to 2006, when approximately 3% of households fit this category.

2014-04-21_15-25-42

While the jump from 3% to 4% may seem small, the net result of this shift is 1.2 million additional households with an adult child in this age group. And it isn’t just confined to those under 35. The share of US households with an oldest child aged 35 or older living at home is approximately 3% and has been rising as well.

This major demographic shift is creating a lot of pent-up demand that someday will be unleashed. Most of these young adults will rent first, except for those who have taken this time living with mom and dad to save up for a down payment. As we showed previously, today’s young adults have achieved homeownership at a lower rate than their parents at the same age, and we believe that they will continue to do so for some time.

 

Author:  by Chris Porter w/ John Burns Real Estate Consulting